And this time, the top might come without the usual on-chain chaos.
Key Takeaways
Содержание статьи:
Is ETH breaking its patterns?
Yes, unlike past bull cycles, exchange withdrawals are declining even as ETH’s price recovers.
Are whales still buying ETH?
Absolutely! Bitmine and other large players accumulated over $480 million in ETH.
Ethereum’s [ETH] recent price recovery is missing a familiar sign: Exchange Withdrawals. In past bull cycles, surging ETH prices were typically followed by a spike in tokens leaving centralized platforms.
This time, withdrawals are declining.
Still, smart money is unbothered and is perhaps even preparing for the next leg up.
A break in the pattern
Historically, Ethereum’s cycle tops coincided with withdrawal spikes above 250,000-300,000, seen in 2018, 2021, and early 2024. Each peak in Exchange Withdrawal Count aligned almost perfectly with a local or cycle high.
But at press time, the chart showed withdrawals trending lower, not higher.
The usual chaos that indicates overheated sentiment simply wasn’t there.
Source: Alphractal
This leaves two possibilities: either Ethereum is breaking from its long-standing behavioral norm, or the real top (the moment of euphoria and mass exits from exchanges) hasn’t yet arrived.
Whales buy the dip
Beneath it all, big buyers have been moving.
Source: X
Lookonchain reported that Tom Lee’s Bitmine Immersion Technologies accumulated 128,718 ETH (worth nearly $480 million) across six new wallets, withdrawing the tokens from FalconX and Kraken shortly after the crash.
Source: X
Analysts also spotted strong buy walls around the $3.3K-$3.5K zone, so whales defended these levels.
While ETH still looked technically weak, these inflows proved that there was confidence that the real rally (and possibly the cycle’s true ATH) may still be ahead.
Is ETH recovering?
At press time, Ethereum traded near $3,824, up 1.97% after a sharp sell-off.
Source: TradingView
The RSI was at 36.7, still mildly oversold territory; a zone that’s often followed by relief rallies. Meanwhile, the MACD remained below zero, with bearish momentum weakening as histogram bars shrank.
As far as DMI goes, the negative directional index (33.4) dominated, but the positive index (14.8) gradually curved upward. Downside pressure was easing, causing accumulation to translate into a short-term bounce if buyers hold $3,500.
Next: Decoding WLFI’s meltdown – Can a $7mln buyback undo a $190mln dump?
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