Stimulus talk meets shutdown reality: What tariff-funded checks could mean for crypto
United States President Donald Trump has floated the idea of using import tariff revenue for another stimulus package, signaling another tailwind for crypto markets, alongside the ongoing government shutdown.
President Trump said that he is considering giving Americans up to $2,000 in stimulus checks funded by revenue generated from import tariffs, according to an interview on the One America News Network published on Thursday.
While the revenue from tariffs is just “starting to kick in,” they will ultimately generate “over a trillion dollars a year,” said Trump during the interview, adding that another part of the revenue will be used to pay the nation’s $37 trillion federal debt.
The proposed “dividend” plan would distribute between $1,000 and $2,000 per individual, pending congressional approval.
President Trump’s interview with One American News Network. Source: YouTube
The US government has collected approximately $214 billion in tariff revenue so far in 2025, according to data from the Treasury Department reviewed by Fox Business.
US tariff revenue. Source: Department of the Treasury, Fox Business
Related: French central bank’s deficit is ‘great’ for Bitcoin: Arthur Hayes
Stimulus checks could serve as liquidity catalyst
Paired with the uncertainty of an ongoing government shutdown, the potential stimulus package may signal another catalyst for the crypto market, akin to the 2020 market cycle.
The development may act as an “additional liquidity catalyst,” according to analysts from Bitfinex exchange, who pointed to a similar situation after the COVID-19 stimulus checks brought new retail investor liquidity that catalyzed Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally during the pandemic.
“A similar dynamic played out following the COVID-era stimulus, which injected substantial liquidity into both traditional and digital markets, contributing to Bitcoin’s explosive rally at the time,” the analysts wrote in a research report released Tuesday.
In March 2020, Trump signed a $2 trillion stimulus package to combat the economic impact of the pandemic, distributing up to $1,200 to eligible individuals with an adjusted gross income of up to $75,000.
BTC/USD, one-week chart, 2020–2021. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Bitcoin’s price rose by over 1,050%, from just $6,000 in March 2020 to $69,000 by November 2021. However, this rally also coincided with a period of quantitative easing (QE), which saw the US Federal Reserve announce a $4 trillion bond-buying program on March 23, 2020.
QE refers to central banks buying bonds and injecting money into the economy to lower interest rates and stimulate spending during challenging financial conditions.
Related: Bitcoin price can hit $250K in 2025 if Fed shifts to QE: Arthur Hayes
Meanwhile, the US government shutdown entered its seventh day on Tuesday, with lawmakers failing to pass a key bill to keep the government funded.
The Senate is set to reconvene on the funding bill later on Tuesday, with no clear resolution in sight after the two sides failed to agree for the fifth time on Monday.
Odds of the government shutdown ending by Oct. 15. Source: Polymarket
Traders see a 68% chance that the shutdown will end on Oct. 15 or later on the prediction market platform Polymarket.
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