Cautious sentiment among SOL traders, combined with skew signals, cast doubt on the bullish outlook.
Key Takeaways
Содержание статьи:
When will SOL ETFs be approved?
The SEC has until mid-October to decide on the products.
What are traders expecting?
The Options and Futures market showed short-term caution, but spot market players were actively accumulating.
Solana [SOL] recovered by 7% over the weekend amid progress in U.S. Spot ETFs filings.
Another wave of updated filings from top issuers like VanEck, Fidelity, CoinShares, Bitwise, Grayscale, Canary and Franklin Templeton was made on the 26th of September.
According to a Bloomberg ETF analyst, James Seyffart, the latest filings were “signs of movement from issuers and the SEC.”
For his part, ETF Store CEO Nate Geraci said that the latest move would likely lead to approval in two weeks. That’s by mid-October.
Source: X
In fact, the Grayscale SOL ETF application has a final SEC decision deadline on the 10th of October. Bitwise and 21Shares filings should have a final decision by the 16th of October.
Market reactions
Meanwhile, SOL price has dropped 24% and slipped briefly below $200 amid broader weak sentiment. But after the latest ETF update, the altcoin bounced about 7% from $190 to $205.
Source: SOL/USDT, TradingView
Should the ETF approval become a bullish catalyst, any dip to $180 or below could be a bargain for an extra rally towards $220 and $250 levels.
Interestingly, the above idea was supported by a trend of accumulation during the dip, as shown by a drop in SOL Balance on Exchanges. About 3 million SOL was moved from exchanges in the past six days – a sign of accumulation.
Source: Glassnode
Options and skew signal caution
However, top Binance traders did not lean heavily toward the ETF expectation. They trimmed long positions by 5% to 69%, marking a monthly low.
It wasn’t surprising after the recent wave of liquidations, which can be discouraging for leveraged traders.
Source: CoinGlass
The leverage flush may allow a healthier recovery driven by spot flows. By contrast, Options data showed traders stayed cautious despite ETF momentum.
Notably, market sentiment was neutral in the short-term but surprisingly negative in the mid-term, according to 25-Delta Skew.
The 1-week tenor was neutral, while the 1-month and 3-month tenors for 25-Delta Skew were negative.
It meant a flat or neutral outlook in the near term, but a cautious or increased hedging (more demand for put options or bearish bets than calls, bullish bets) in the mid-term.
Source: Laevitas
There may be more clarity in early Q4, but whether traders will reposition ahead of ETF approval remains to be seen.
Next: Bitcoin: 120K miner exodus vs. $60mln inflow – Can BTC hold?
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